Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - BrokersSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$435.85 - $2,383.28$845.68
Multi-Stage$265.18 - $289.99$277.36
Blended Fair Value$561.52
Current Price$318.16
Upside76.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.21%7.20%4.404.113.833.585.063.112.902.702.522.35
YoY Growth--7.14%7.21%7.25%-29.35%62.78%7.14%7.35%7.19%7.19%7.03%
Dividend Yield--1.05%1.02%1.66%2.03%2.29%2.10%1.62%2.30%2.06%2.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)647.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)250.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)397.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)129.6081.0048.60
Cash Retained (M)397.90397.90397.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-129.60-81.00-48.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)268.31316.90349.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)53.9353.9353.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.985.886.48
LTM Dividend per Share4.644.644.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.985.886.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.6110.5111.11
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.21%6.21%7.21%
Fair Value$435.85$845.68$2,383.28
Upside / Downside36.99%165.80%649.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)647.98688.25731.03776.46824.71875.97902.25
Payout Ratio38.59%48.88%59.16%69.44%79.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)250.08336.38432.45539.15657.45788.37834.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.21%6.21%7.21%
Year 1 PV (M)309.87312.81315.76
Year 2 PV (M)366.96373.97381.04
Year 3 PV (M)421.44433.57445.93
Year 4 PV (M)473.40491.66510.43
Year 5 PV (M)522.92548.25574.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,206.0512,797.2313,411.11
Equity Value (M)14,300.6414,957.4915,638.82
Shares Outstanding (M)53.9353.9353.93
Fair Value$265.18$277.36$289.99
Upside / Downside-16.65%-12.82%-8.85%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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