Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Ems-Chemie Holding AG (EMSN.SW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$331.44 - $498.86$410.58
Multi-Stage$821.33 - $902.80$861.27
Blended Fair Value$635.92
Current Price$599.00
Upside6.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.12%3.82%16.0020.0021.0017.0020.0019.7518.5017.0015.0012.00
YoY Growth---20.00%-4.76%23.53%-15.00%1.27%6.76%8.82%13.37%24.96%9.09%
Dividend Yield--2.62%2.94%3.35%1.67%2.34%3.10%4.01%2.61%2.90%2.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)922.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)842.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)80.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)184.56115.3569.21
Cash Retained (M)80.8080.8080.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-184.56-115.35-69.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)-103.76-34.5511.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.3923.3923.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share-4.44-1.480.50
LTM Dividend per Share36.0036.0036.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share-4.44-1.480.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend31.5734.5236.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-2.77%-1.77%-0.77%
Fair Value$331.44$410.58$498.86
Upside / Downside-44.67%-31.46%-16.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)922.81906.44890.37874.58859.07843.83869.15
Payout Ratio91.24%91.00%90.75%90.50%90.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)842.01824.82807.98791.47775.30759.45803.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-2.77%-1.77%-0.77%
Year 1 PV (M)766.69774.58782.46
Year 2 PV (M)698.11712.54727.13
Year 3 PV (M)635.66655.47675.70
Year 4 PV (M)578.79602.97627.90
Year 5 PV (M)527.00554.67583.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,002.8216,842.8917,717.88
Equity Value (M)19,209.0720,143.1221,114.55
Shares Outstanding (M)23.3923.3923.39
Fair Value$821.33$861.27$902.80
Upside / Downside37.12%43.78%50.72%

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