Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$544.26 - $1,336.48$812.18
Multi-Stage$371.91 - $406.76$389.02
Blended Fair Value$600.60
Current Price$649.54
Upside-7.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.30%7.38%0.950.720.600.620.390.390.410.420.430.44
YoY Growth--32.74%20.22%-3.47%59.35%-1.54%-3.70%-1.74%-2.48%-3.19%-5.63%
Dividend Yield--0.26%0.20%0.37%0.55%0.35%0.64%0.55%0.53%0.68%0.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,130.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,085.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)226.07141.3084.78
Cash Retained (M)1,085.041,085.041,085.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-226.07-141.30-84.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)858.96943.741,000.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)45.5945.5945.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share18.8420.7021.94
LTM Dividend per Share0.990.990.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share18.8420.7021.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend19.8321.6922.93
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$544.26$812.18$1,336.48
Upside / Downside-16.21%25.04%105.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,130.371,203.851,282.101,365.431,454.181,548.711,595.17
Payout Ratio4.01%21.21%38.41%55.60%72.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.33255.31492.40759.241,058.681,393.841,475.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)231.30233.50235.69
Year 2 PV (M)404.14411.84419.61
Year 3 PV (M)564.54580.74597.26
Year 4 PV (M)713.16740.58768.79
Year 5 PV (M)850.63891.71934.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,192.9514,878.4715,590.23
Equity Value (M)16,956.7217,736.8518,545.95
Shares Outstanding (M)45.5945.5945.59
Fair Value$371.91$389.02$406.76
Upside / Downside-42.74%-40.11%-37.38%

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