Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Emaar Properties PJSC (EMAAR.AE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$209.64 - $342.96$321.40
Multi-Stage$57.28 - $62.62$59.90
Blended Fair Value$190.65
Current Price$13.60
Upside1,301.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.12%-1.52%0.820.330.210.230.100.260.510.170.160.27
YoY Growth--150.76%58.68%-9.71%124.20%-60.39%-49.73%204.22%6.87%-41.22%-72.01%
Dividend Yield--6.17%3.93%3.70%3.82%2.89%11.63%10.75%2.89%2.16%4.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,253.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13,248.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,004.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,050.681,906.671,144.00
Cash Retained (M)2,004.932,004.932,004.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,050.68-1,906.67-1,144.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1,045.7498.26860.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,845.168,845.168,845.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.120.010.10
LTM Dividend per Share1.501.501.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.120.010.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.381.511.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$209.64$321.40$342.96
Upside / Downside1,441.43%2,263.25%2,421.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,253.3916,244.8617,300.7818,425.3319,622.9720,898.4621,525.42
Payout Ratio86.86%87.48%88.11%88.74%89.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13,248.4614,211.7615,244.3216,351.0617,537.2818,808.6219,911.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)13,257.1313,382.7913,508.45
Year 2 PV (M)13,265.1313,517.7913,772.84
Year 3 PV (M)13,272.4513,653.4514,041.68
Year 4 PV (M)13,279.1113,789.7914,315.05
Year 5 PV (M)13,285.1213,926.7914,593.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)440,278.89461,544.52483,624.05
Equity Value (M)506,637.82529,815.14553,855.09
Shares Outstanding (M)8,845.168,845.168,845.16
Fair Value$57.28$59.90$62.62
Upside / Downside321.17%340.43%360.42%

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