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Definitive Analysis

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Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$263.40 - $938.21$437.08
Multi-Stage$174.25 - $190.13$182.05
Blended Fair Value$309.57
Current Price$205.24
Upside50.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.36%8.97%5.585.335.004.771.722.733.142.662.372.27
YoY Growth--4.79%6.54%4.76%177.89%-37.14%-13.08%18.28%12.33%4.06%-3.84%
Dividend Yield--2.72%3.41%3.22%3.83%1.15%3.15%2.59%2.33%2.79%3.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,100.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)667.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)432.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)220.02137.5182.51
Cash Retained (M)432.50432.50432.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-220.02-137.51-82.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)212.48294.99349.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)117.95117.95117.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.802.502.97
LTM Dividend per Share5.665.665.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.802.502.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.468.168.63
WACC / Discount Rate8.49%8.49%8.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$263.40$437.08$938.21
Upside / Downside28.34%112.96%357.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,100.101,171.611,247.761,328.871,415.241,507.231,552.45
Payout Ratio60.69%66.55%72.41%78.27%84.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)667.60779.68903.521,040.161,190.741,356.511,436.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.49%8.49%8.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)711.93718.68725.43
Year 2 PV (M)753.31767.66782.15
Year 3 PV (M)791.88814.61837.77
Year 4 PV (M)827.74859.57892.32
Year 5 PV (M)861.03902.62945.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,607.3417,409.4818,242.32
Equity Value (M)20,553.2321,472.6222,425.77
Shares Outstanding (M)117.95117.95117.95
Fair Value$174.25$182.05$190.13
Upside / Downside-15.10%-11.30%-7.36%

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