Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Delta Djakarta Tbk (DLTA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,011.07 - $1,410.18$1,210.44
Multi-Stage$3,262.96 - $3,598.40$3,427.26
Blended Fair Value$2,318.85
Current Price$1,995.00
Upside16.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.09%4.48%280.34324.24299.48249.50389.32477.27259.37179.69119.94195.94
YoY Growth---13.54%8.27%20.03%-35.91%-18.43%84.01%44.35%49.81%-38.78%8.32%
Dividend Yield--13.61%9.74%7.45%6.53%10.14%10.05%3.63%3.46%2.73%3.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)141,742.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)140,452.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,289.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28,348.4117,717.7610,630.65
Cash Retained (M)1,289.531,289.531,289.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-28,348.41-17,717.76-10,630.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)-27,058.88-16,428.23-9,341.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)800.66800.66800.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share-33.80-20.52-11.67
LTM Dividend per Share175.42175.42175.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share-33.80-20.52-11.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend141.63154.90163.75
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate-6.80%-5.80%-4.80%
Fair Value$1,011.07$1,210.44$1,410.18
Upside / Downside-49.32%-39.33%-29.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)141,742.05133,519.99125,774.86118,479.01111,606.37105,132.40108,286.37
Payout Ratio99.09%97.27%95.45%93.64%91.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)140,452.52129,877.81120,057.31110,939.11102,474.7994,619.16100,164.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate-6.80%-5.80%-4.80%
Year 1 PV (M)120,935.59122,233.19123,530.79
Year 2 PV (M)104,094.30106,340.08108,609.84
Year 3 PV (M)89,565.8092,479.8995,456.50
Year 4 PV (M)77,036.0080,395.8883,864.50
Year 5 PV (M)66,233.0769,863.4573,651.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,154,651.222,272,752.332,395,976.28
Equity Value (M)2,612,515.982,744,064.822,881,089.21
Shares Outstanding (M)800.66800.66800.66
Fair Value$3,262.96$3,427.26$3,598.40
Upside / Downside63.56%71.79%80.37%

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