Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Dynagas LNG Partners LP (DLNG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.01 - $41.46$30.72
Multi-Stage$31.35 - $34.39$32.84
Blended Fair Value$31.78
Current Price$3.51
Upside805.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.05%-10.13%0.400.320.320.320.000.451.321.821.821.70
YoY Growth--27.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-66.15%-27.57%0.00%7.47%44.63%
Dividend Yield--10.70%10.95%11.15%7.87%0.00%41.79%58.97%17.64%10.35%14.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)60.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.007.504.50
Cash Retained (M)41.3641.3641.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.00-7.50-4.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.3633.8636.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)36.6536.6536.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.800.921.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.800.921.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.311.431.51
WACC / Discount Rate7.41%7.41%7.41%
Growth Rate1.62%2.62%3.62%
Fair Value$23.01$30.72$41.46
Upside / Downside555.48%775.27%1,081.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)60.0161.5963.2064.8666.5668.3170.36
Payout Ratio31.08%42.86%54.65%66.43%78.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.6526.4034.5443.0952.0661.4865.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.41%7.41%7.41%
Growth Rate1.62%2.62%3.62%
Year 1 PV (M)24.3424.5824.82
Year 2 PV (M)29.3629.9430.52
Year 3 PV (M)33.7734.7735.80
Year 4 PV (M)37.6139.1240.66
Year 5 PV (M)40.9543.0145.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)983.111,032.441,083.73
Equity Value (M)1,149.141,203.851,260.68
Shares Outstanding (M)36.6536.6536.65
Fair Value$31.35$32.84$34.39
Upside / Downside793.18%835.70%879.87%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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