Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $2.95 - $4.24 | $3.58 |
| Multi-Stage | $5.18 - $5.66 | $5.42 |
| Blended Fair Value | $4.50 | |
| Current Price | $2.03 | |
| Upside | 121.58% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -4.10% | -3.66% | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -0.39% | 0.00% | -2.02% | -5.22% | -12.30% | -7.32% | -4.58% | -4.91% | -2.04% | 3.06% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 8.61% | 10.27% | 10.45% | 7.59% | 9.67% | 9.02% | 10.48% | 9.09% | 11.13% | 11.55% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 43.20 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 38.30 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 4.89 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 8.64 | 5.40 | 3.24 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 4.89 | 4.89 | 4.89 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -8.64 | -5.40 | -3.24 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -3.75 | -0.51 | 1.65 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 103.55 | 103.55 | 103.55 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.33 | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $2.95 | $3.58 | $4.24 |
| Upside / Downside | 45.17% | 76.29% | 108.94% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 43.20 | 42.76 | 42.34 | 41.91 | 41.49 | 41.08 | 42.31 |
| Payout Ratio | 88.67% | 88.94% | 89.20% | 89.47% | 89.73% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 38.30 | 38.03 | 37.77 | 37.50 | 37.23 | 36.97 | 39.14 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 34.51 | 34.86 | 35.21 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 31.09 | 31.73 | 32.37 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 28.01 | 28.88 | 29.76 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 25.24 | 26.28 | 27.36 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 22.74 | 23.92 | 25.15 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 394.72 | 415.27 | 436.67 |
| Equity Value (M) | 536.31 | 560.95 | 586.54 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 103.55 | 103.55 | 103.55 |
| Fair Value | $5.18 | $5.42 | $5.66 |
| Upside / Downside | 155.14% | 166.86% | 179.04% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATCOL | Atlas Corp. | 3.53% | $0.89 | 30.47% |
| AWC-R.BK | Asset World Corp Public Company Limited | 3.53% | $0.07 | 37.62% |
| CCRO3.SA | CCR S.A. | 3.53% | $0.48 | 66.57% |
| HMU.DE | HMS Bergbau AG | 3.53% | $1.69 | 29.89% |
| RAUTE.HE | Raute Oyj | 3.53% | $0.52 | 26.97% |
| RWE.DE | RWE AG | 3.53% | $1.66 | 46.76% |
| SNL.AX | Supply Network Limited | 3.53% | $1.13 | 67.28% |
| 0NHS.L | Nutrien Ltd. | 3.52% | $2.18 | 58.76% |
| CELL.MI | Cellularline S.p.A. | 3.52% | $0.09 | 34.70% |
| INFREA.ST | Infrea AB | 3.52% | $0.50 | 67.57% |
| ISSP.JK | PT Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia Tbk | 3.52% | $15.00 | 19.85% |
| MGA | Magna International Inc. | 3.52% | $1.92 | 52.47% |
| PARP.PA | Groupe Partouche S.A. | 3.52% | $0.64 | 38.61% |
| PKI.TO | Parkland Corporation | 3.52% | $1.40 | 73.81% |
| SMU.SN | SMU S.A. | 3.52% | $5.49 | 46.99% |
| 161390.KS | Hankook Tire & Technology Co., Ltd. | 3.51% | $2,000.00 | 25.86% |
| 300360.SZ | Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co., Ltd. | 3.51% | $0.61 | 52.03% |
| 5106.KL | Axis Real Estate Investment Trust | 3.51% | $0.07 | 56.99% |
| 601128.SS | Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. | 3.51% | $0.25 | 19.56% |
| INTP.JK | PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk | 3.51% | $259.81 | 43.04% |
| RATO-A.ST | Ratos AB (publ) | 3.51% | $1.35 | 12.15% |
| 002887.SZ | Tianjin LVYIN Landscape and Ecology Construction Co., Ltd | 3.50% | $0.33 | 84.50% |
| 603062.SS | MEGA P&C Advanced Materials (Shanghai) Company Limited | 3.50% | $1.66 | 74.27% |
| CMCL | Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc | 3.50% | $0.92 | 35.87% |
| DLO | DLocal Limited | 3.50% | $0.49 | 87.74% |
| LAZ | Lazard Ltd | 3.50% | $1.74 | 67.48% |
| TWL.MI | TraWell Co S.p.A. | 3.50% | $0.21 | 28.69% |
| WJP.SI | VICOM Ltd | 3.50% | $0.06 | 66.95% |
| 005610.KS | SPC Samlip Co., Ltd. | 3.49% | $1,803.39 | 45.19% |
| 0RFL.L | VAT Group AG | 3.49% | $12.50 | 88.50% |
| 2030.HK | Cabbeen Fashion Limited | 3.49% | $0.05 | 63.92% |
| 5206.TWO | Kunyue Development Co., Ltd. | 3.49% | $1.18 | 21.91% |
| 5246.KL | Westports Holdings Berhad | 3.49% | $0.20 | 71.36% |
| 5989.T | H-One Co.,Ltd. | 3.49% | $49.44 | 14.49% |
| ACO-X.TO | ATCO Ltd. | 3.49% | $1.98 | 50.80% |
| CNI | Canadian National Railway Company | 3.49% | $3.50 | 50.64% |
| PEAB3.SA | Companhia de Participações Aliança da Bahia | 3.49% | $1.36 | 78.68% |
| 026960.KS | Dong Suh Companies Inc. | 3.48% | $905.33 | 62.72% |
| 055550.KS | Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. | 3.48% | $2,668.74 | 26.55% |
| 0QK5.L | INFICON Holding AG | 3.48% | $3.44 | 43.54% |
| 6722.TWO | Whetron Electronics Co.,Ltd. | 3.48% | $1.99 | 24.71% |
| HOLM-A.ST | Holmen AB (publ) | 3.48% | $12.23 | 66.11% |
| 002206.SZ | Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.,Ltd | 3.47% | $0.20 | 43.30% |
| 3004.SR | Northern Region Cement Company | 3.47% | $0.25 | 79.89% |
| 4129.TWO | United Orthopedic Corporation | 3.47% | $3.80 | 69.70% |
| 600133.SS | Wuhan East Lake High Technology Group Co., Ltd. | 3.47% | $0.32 | 87.27% |
| 601995.SS | China International Capital Corporation Limited | 3.47% | $1.21 | 62.35% |
| 6471.T | NSK Ltd. | 3.47% | $33.82 | 92.34% |
| CSED3.SA | Cruzeiro do Sul Educacional S.A. | 3.47% | $0.21 | 30.49% |
| GPRA.JK | PT Perdana Gapuraprima Tbk | 3.47% | $5.00 | 18.12% |