Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Dollar General Corporation (DG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Discount StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$317.90 - $1,152.05$1,003.52
Multi-Stage$146.55 - $160.30$153.30
Blended Fair Value$578.41
Current Price$98.66
Upside486.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.64%0.00%2.352.352.241.781.611.491.391.281.281.17
YoY Growth--0.19%4.91%25.89%10.19%8.66%6.87%8.34%0.64%8.83%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.61%1.71%1.02%0.75%0.75%0.86%1.11%1.34%1.73%1.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,277.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)519.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)757.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)255.45159.6595.79
Cash Retained (M)757.90757.90757.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-255.45-159.65-95.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)502.45598.24662.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)220.49220.49220.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.282.713.00
LTM Dividend per Share2.362.362.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.282.713.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.635.075.36
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$317.90$1,003.52$1,152.05
Upside / Downside222.22%917.15%1,067.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,277.231,360.251,448.661,542.831,643.111,749.911,802.41
Payout Ratio40.66%50.53%60.40%70.26%80.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)519.33687.31874.941,084.061,316.661,574.921,667.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)636.09642.12648.15
Year 2 PV (M)749.39763.67778.08
Year 3 PV (M)859.31883.97909.11
Year 4 PV (M)965.901,003.051,041.26
Year 5 PV (M)1,069.261,120.911,174.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,032.5929,386.5830,792.38
Equity Value (M)32,312.5533,800.3035,343.51
Shares Outstanding (M)220.49220.49220.49
Fair Value$146.55$153.30$160.30
Upside / Downside48.54%55.38%62.48%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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