Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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DCP Midstream, LP (DCP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$83.33 - $184.24$120.05
Multi-Stage$75.17 - $82.23$78.64
Blended Fair Value$99.34
Current Price$41.69
Upside138.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS0.00%0.00%1.921.842.233.250.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--4.43%-17.42%-31.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.61%5.49%10.29%79.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)894.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)304.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)590.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)178.80111.7567.05
Cash Retained (M)590.00590.00590.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-178.80-111.75-67.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)411.20478.25522.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)208.55208.55208.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.972.292.51
LTM Dividend per Share1.461.461.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.972.292.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.433.753.97
WACC / Discount Rate8.34%8.34%8.34%
Growth Rate4.06%5.06%6.06%
Fair Value$83.33$120.05$184.24
Upside / Downside99.88%187.95%341.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)894.00939.24986.761,036.691,089.151,144.261,178.59
Payout Ratio34.00%45.20%56.40%67.60%78.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)304.00424.57556.56700.82858.261,029.831,090.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.34%8.34%8.34%
Growth Rate4.06%5.06%6.06%
Year 1 PV (M)388.15391.88395.61
Year 2 PV (M)465.16474.15483.22
Year 3 PV (M)535.49551.07566.96
Year 4 PV (M)599.52622.90646.96
Year 5 PV (M)657.66689.88723.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,031.2613,669.5514,332.62
Equity Value (M)15,677.2516,399.4317,148.70
Shares Outstanding (M)208.55208.55208.55
Fair Value$75.17$78.64$82.23
Upside / Downside80.31%88.62%97.24%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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