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Definitive Analysis

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Duxton Water Limited (D2O.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.38 - $3.70$2.99
Multi-Stage$5.55 - $6.11$5.82
Blended Fair Value$4.41
Current Price$1.52
Upside189.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.92%0.00%0.060.050.050.040.040.040.020.010.000.00
YoY Growth--18.36%20.62%4.20%3.51%9.03%94.77%254.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.83%3.42%2.83%2.88%3.04%2.71%1.33%0.51%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.474.672.80
Cash Retained (M)18.4218.4218.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.47-4.67-2.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.9513.7515.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)147.80147.80147.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.38$2.99$3.70
Upside / Downside56.62%96.69%143.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37.3536.9736.6036.2435.8835.5236.58
Payout Ratio50.68%58.54%66.41%74.27%82.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.9321.6524.3126.9129.4731.9733.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)20.1520.3620.56
Year 2 PV (M)21.0721.5021.94
Year 3 PV (M)21.7222.3923.08
Year 4 PV (M)22.1423.0624.01
Year 5 PV (M)22.3623.5324.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)712.71749.82788.46
Equity Value (M)820.16860.66902.79
Shares Outstanding (M)147.80147.80147.80
Fair Value$5.55$5.82$6.11
Upside / Downside265.07%283.10%301.85%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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