Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Ticker

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Sector

Chevron Corporation (CVX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$145.92 - $335.25$213.01
Multi-Stage$148.55 - $162.16$155.23
Blended Fair Value$184.12
Current Price$155.29
Upside18.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.66%4.06%6.676.416.205.765.465.074.814.604.544.52
YoY Growth--4.09%3.36%7.75%5.47%7.72%5.38%4.55%1.25%0.50%0.81%
Dividend Yield--3.99%4.03%3.80%3.53%5.21%6.99%3.85%4.03%4.23%4.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,780.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12,187.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)593.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,556.001,597.50958.50
Cash Retained (M)593.00593.00593.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,556.00-1,597.50-958.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1,963.00-1,004.50-365.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,768.661,768.661,768.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1.11-0.57-0.21
LTM Dividend per Share6.896.896.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1.11-0.57-0.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.786.326.68
WACC / Discount Rate7.77%7.77%7.77%
Growth Rate3.66%4.66%5.66%
Fair Value$145.92$213.01$335.25
Upside / Downside-6.03%37.17%115.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,780.0013,375.9813,999.7514,652.6115,335.9216,051.0916,532.63
Payout Ratio95.36%94.29%93.22%92.14%91.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12,187.0012,611.9413,050.0013,501.5013,966.7314,445.9815,292.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.77%7.77%7.77%
Growth Rate3.66%4.66%5.66%
Year 1 PV (M)11,590.8311,702.6411,814.45
Year 2 PV (M)11,022.4011,236.0811,451.82
Year 3 PV (M)10,480.4610,786.6911,098.84
Year 4 PV (M)9,963.8110,353.8810,755.29
Year 5 PV (M)9,471.329,937.0510,420.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)210,197.93220,533.92231,272.56
Equity Value (M)262,726.75274,550.27286,813.88
Shares Outstanding (M)1,768.661,768.661,768.66
Fair Value$148.55$155.23$162.16
Upside / Downside-4.34%-0.04%4.43%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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