Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Central Valley Community Bancorp (CVCY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.41 - $21.41$17.75
Multi-Stage$26.92 - $29.61$28.24
Blended Fair Value$22.99
Current Price$17.83
Upside28.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.23%14.16%0.430.300.300.300.290.310.220.160.140.10
YoY Growth--45.48%0.34%-2.07%4.10%-4.74%35.95%41.86%10.87%37.19%-9.63%
Dividend Yield--2.43%1.50%1.44%1.30%1.58%2.34%1.13%0.81%0.70%0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.784.242.54
Cash Retained (M)22.7822.7822.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.78-4.24-2.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.0018.5420.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.0019.0019.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.840.981.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.840.981.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.431.561.65
WACC / Discount Rate7.71%7.71%7.71%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$14.41$17.75$21.41
Upside / Downside-19.20%-0.47%20.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.8933.5533.2232.8932.5632.2333.20
Payout Ratio32.80%44.24%55.68%67.12%78.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.1214.8518.5022.0725.5829.0130.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.71%7.71%7.71%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)13.6413.7813.92
Year 2 PV (M)15.6215.9416.27
Year 3 PV (M)17.1417.6718.21
Year 4 PV (M)18.2519.0119.79
Year 5 PV (M)19.0220.0121.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)427.93450.22473.42
Equity Value (M)511.61536.63562.65
Shares Outstanding (M)19.0019.0019.00
Fair Value$26.92$28.24$29.61
Upside / Downside51.00%58.38%66.06%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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