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Definitive Analysis

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Canadian Utilities Limited (CU-X.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Diversified UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.98 - $42.15$33.24
Multi-Stage$54.83 - $60.17$57.45
Blended Fair Value$45.35
Current Price$34.40
Upside31.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS4.37%12.76%1.981.982.002.011.961.601.341.351.000.84
YoY Growth--0.00%-1.11%-0.55%2.84%22.45%19.01%-0.27%35.32%18.50%40.99%
Dividend Yield--5.75%5.31%5.28%5.92%5.76%4.38%3.90%3.46%2.72%2.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)649.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)624.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)129.8081.1348.68
Cash Retained (M)25.0025.0025.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-129.80-81.13-48.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)-104.80-56.13-23.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)270.27270.27270.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.39-0.21-0.09
LTM Dividend per Share2.312.312.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.39-0.21-0.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.922.102.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate-0.84%0.16%1.16%
Fair Value$25.98$33.24$42.15
Upside / Downside-24.47%-3.37%22.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)649.00650.07651.14652.21653.28654.36673.99
Payout Ratio96.15%94.92%93.69%92.46%91.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)624.00617.03610.04603.03595.99588.92623.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate-0.84%0.16%1.16%
Year 1 PV (M)573.61579.40585.18
Year 2 PV (M)527.20537.89548.68
Year 3 PV (M)484.47499.27514.37
Year 4 PV (M)445.11463.34482.12
Year 5 PV (M)408.88429.92451.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,380.9913,017.9813,680.91
Equity Value (M)14,820.2715,527.7916,263.09
Shares Outstanding (M)270.27270.27270.27
Fair Value$54.83$57.45$60.17
Upside / Downside59.40%67.01%74.92%

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