Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (CTA-PB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.52 - $33.14$26.92
Multi-Stage$47.31 - $52.11$49.66
Blended Fair Value$38.29
Current Price$67.63
Upside-43.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-2.17%0.00%0.670.640.610.580.570.754.102.671.950.00
YoY Growth--4.33%5.02%5.29%2.32%-24.07%-81.79%53.59%36.85%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.06%1.11%1.01%1.01%1.22%3.18%14.15%9.21%6.73%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,605.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)472.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,133.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)321.00200.63120.38
Cash Retained (M)1,133.001,133.001,133.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-321.00-200.63-120.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)812.00932.381,012.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)683.93683.93683.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.191.361.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.690.690.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.191.361.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.882.052.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.55%6.55%6.55%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$21.52$26.92$33.14
Upside / Downside-68.18%-60.19%-51.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,605.001,588.951,573.061,557.331,541.761,526.341,572.13
Payout Ratio29.41%41.53%53.64%65.76%77.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)472.00659.84843.871,024.151,200.751,373.711,454.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.55%6.55%6.55%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)613.01619.27625.52
Year 2 PV (M)728.36743.30758.39
Year 3 PV (M)821.24846.63872.55
Year 4 PV (M)894.52931.59969.81
Year 5 PV (M)950.751,000.261,051.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,346.3029,822.3631,359.28
Equity Value (M)32,354.1833,963.4135,637.36
Shares Outstanding (M)683.93683.93683.93
Fair Value$47.31$49.66$52.11
Upside / Downside-30.05%-26.57%-22.95%

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