Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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CSG Systems International, Inc. (CSGS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.05 - $51.74$40.91
Multi-Stage$46.93 - $51.48$49.16
Blended Fair Value$45.04
Current Price$65.31
Upside-31.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.79%2.63%0.941.201.191.151.101.030.990.950.850.79
YoY Growth---21.58%1.36%2.73%4.93%6.63%4.10%4.20%11.36%8.42%8.32%
Dividend Yield--1.56%2.35%2.21%1.82%2.45%2.47%2.28%2.10%2.26%1.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)83.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.6710.426.25
Cash Retained (M)55.9255.9255.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.67-10.42-6.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.2545.5049.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28.2228.2228.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.391.611.76
LTM Dividend per Share0.970.970.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.391.611.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.362.582.73
WACC / Discount Rate8.05%8.05%8.05%
Growth Rate0.63%1.63%2.63%
Fair Value$32.05$40.91$51.74
Upside / Downside-50.93%-37.36%-20.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)83.3584.7086.0887.4888.9190.3593.06
Payout Ratio32.90%44.32%55.74%67.16%78.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.4337.5447.9858.7669.8681.3286.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.05%8.05%8.05%
Growth Rate0.63%1.63%2.63%
Year 1 PV (M)34.4134.7535.09
Year 2 PV (M)40.3041.1041.92
Year 3 PV (M)45.2246.5847.97
Year 4 PV (M)49.2851.2653.31
Year 5 PV (M)52.5655.2358.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,102.711,158.601,216.73
Equity Value (M)1,324.471,387.521,453.02
Shares Outstanding (M)28.2228.2228.22
Fair Value$46.93$49.16$51.48
Upside / Downside-28.14%-24.72%-21.17%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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