Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.58 - $34.14$28.03
Multi-Stage$36.55 - $40.04$38.26
Blended Fair Value$33.15
Current Price$70.63
Upside-53.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.36%4.65%1.611.601.581.561.541.501.501.491.381.19
YoY Growth--0.83%1.30%1.25%0.99%2.44%0.62%0.18%8.29%16.02%16.25%
Dividend Yield--2.28%2.86%3.06%3.41%2.75%3.88%3.19%3.37%4.00%3.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,329.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,462.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,867.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,065.801,291.13774.68
Cash Retained (M)3,867.003,867.003,867.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,065.80-1,291.13-774.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,801.202,575.883,092.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,998.503,998.503,998.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.640.77
LTM Dividend per Share1.621.621.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.640.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.072.262.39
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate-0.57%0.43%1.43%
Fair Value$22.58$28.03$34.14
Upside / Downside-68.03%-60.32%-51.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,329.0010,373.2810,417.7610,462.4210,507.2810,552.3210,868.89
Payout Ratio62.56%68.05%73.54%79.02%84.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,462.007,058.957,660.918,267.908,879.959,497.0910,053.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate-0.57%0.43%1.43%
Year 1 PV (M)6,439.526,504.296,569.05
Year 2 PV (M)6,375.396,504.286,634.45
Year 3 PV (M)6,276.756,468.056,663.19
Year 4 PV (M)6,149.846,401.006,659.78
Year 5 PV (M)6,000.086,307.946,628.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)114,907.89120,803.70126,939.08
Equity Value (M)146,149.49152,989.27160,093.87
Shares Outstanding (M)3,998.503,998.503,998.50
Fair Value$36.55$38.26$40.04
Upside / Downside-48.25%-45.83%-43.31%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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