Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Carsurin Tbk (CRSN.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$72.14 - $105.66$88.30
Multi-Stage$125.29 - $137.77$131.41
Blended Fair Value$109.85
Current Price$105.00
Upside4.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%2.350.003.720.730.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%411.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27,376.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,796.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)20,580.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,475.373,422.102,053.26
Cash Retained (M)20,580.6320,580.6320,580.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,475.37-3,422.10-2,053.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)15,105.2617,158.5318,527.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,892.002,892.002,892.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.225.936.41
LTM Dividend per Share2.352.352.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.225.936.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.578.288.76
WACC / Discount Rate8.29%8.29%8.29%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$72.14$88.30$105.66
Upside / Downside-31.29%-15.91%0.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27,376.8327,103.0626,832.0326,563.7126,298.0726,035.0926,816.14
Payout Ratio24.82%37.86%50.89%63.93%76.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,796.2010,261.1413,656.1016,982.1420,240.2923,431.5824,804.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.29%8.29%8.29%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)9,380.149,475.859,571.57
Year 2 PV (M)11,411.7911,645.8711,882.33
Year 3 PV (M)12,972.7813,373.9713,783.35
Year 4 PV (M)14,134.1814,719.9815,323.80
Year 5 PV (M)14,957.8415,736.7316,547.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)299,484.22315,079.06331,316.89
Equity Value (M)362,340.95380,031.47398,425.67
Shares Outstanding (M)2,892.002,892.002,892.00
Fair Value$125.29$131.41$137.77
Upside / Downside19.32%25.15%31.21%

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