Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CPFL Energia S.A. (CPFE3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$509.41 - $940.68$881.56
Multi-Stage$149.93 - $164.04$156.86
Blended Fair Value$519.21
Current Price$39.40
Upside1,217.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS45.48%13.09%3.023.103.363.731.840.460.280.290.200.00
YoY Growth---2.54%-7.80%-9.91%103.11%296.28%65.77%-4.38%45.39%4,353.29%-99.49%
Dividend Yield--8.01%8.95%10.62%11.56%6.04%1.72%0.94%1.17%0.78%0.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,450.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,070.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,380.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,090.03681.27408.76
Cash Retained (M)2,380.052,380.052,380.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,090.03-681.27-408.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,290.011,698.771,971.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,152.251,152.251,152.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.121.471.71
LTM Dividend per Share2.662.662.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.121.471.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.784.144.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$509.41$881.56$940.68
Upside / Downside1,192.93%2,137.45%2,287.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,450.175,804.436,181.726,583.537,011.467,467.217,691.23
Payout Ratio56.33%63.06%69.80%76.53%83.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,070.133,660.554,314.755,038.535,838.186,720.497,114.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,411.793,444.133,476.47
Year 2 PV (M)3,748.253,819.643,891.71
Year 3 PV (M)4,079.564,196.674,316.00
Year 4 PV (M)4,405.784,575.214,749.49
Year 5 PV (M)4,726.964,955.285,192.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)152,390.93159,751.47167,393.71
Equity Value (M)172,763.26180,742.39189,019.70
Shares Outstanding (M)1,152.251,152.251,152.25
Fair Value$149.93$156.86$164.04
Upside / Downside280.55%298.12%316.35%

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