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Definitive Analysis

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Colruyt Group N.V. (COLR.BR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$142.36 - $247.11$187.28
Multi-Stage$264.50 - $290.91$277.45
Blended Fair Value$232.36
Current Price$38.00
Upside511.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.04%1.24%1.371.811.121.561.461.441.361.371.321.20
YoY Growth---24.46%61.90%-28.40%6.72%1.55%6.31%-0.76%3.51%9.92%-0.66%
Dividend Yield--3.60%4.31%4.15%4.16%2.88%2.92%2.08%3.04%2.87%2.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,388.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)397.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)990.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)277.64173.53104.12
Cash Retained (M)990.60990.60990.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-277.64-173.53-104.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)712.96817.08886.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)125.15125.15125.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.706.537.08
LTM Dividend per Share3.183.183.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.706.537.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.879.7110.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate0.09%1.09%2.09%
Fair Value$142.36$187.28$247.11
Upside / Downside274.62%392.83%550.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,388.201,403.301,418.561,433.991,449.591,465.361,509.32
Payout Ratio28.64%40.91%53.18%65.46%77.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)397.60574.13754.46938.641,126.741,318.821,396.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate0.09%1.09%2.09%
Year 1 PV (M)534.63539.97545.31
Year 2 PV (M)654.21667.35680.62
Year 3 PV (M)757.92780.87804.27
Year 4 PV (M)847.21881.57916.98
Year 5 PV (M)923.40970.461,019.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,385.9730,883.6032,441.69
Equity Value (M)33,103.3434,723.8336,408.30
Shares Outstanding (M)125.15125.15125.15
Fair Value$264.50$277.45$290.91
Upside / Downside596.05%630.12%665.54%

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