Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cogna Educação S.A. (COGN3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.84 - $15.29$11.61
Multi-Stage$36.92 - $40.79$38.82
Blended Fair Value$25.21
Current Price$3.34
Upside654.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.100.340.370.300.14
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-69.26%-7.73%22.65%115.95%-58.39%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.61%3.25%2.62%2.17%1.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,331.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)120.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,211.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)266.27166.4299.85
Cash Retained (M)1,211.041,211.041,211.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-266.27-166.42-99.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)944.781,044.631,111.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,879.221,879.221,879.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.560.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.560.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.620.66
WACC / Discount Rate4.40%4.40%4.40%
Growth Rate-1.89%-0.89%0.11%
Fair Value$8.84$11.61$15.29
Upside / Downside164.64%247.67%357.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,331.341,319.511,307.781,296.161,284.641,273.221,311.41
Payout Ratio9.04%25.23%41.42%57.61%73.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)120.30332.89541.70746.77948.151,145.901,213.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.40%4.40%4.40%
Growth Rate-1.89%-0.89%0.11%
Year 1 PV (M)315.64318.86322.07
Year 2 PV (M)487.00496.98507.06
Year 3 PV (M)636.57656.24676.30
Year 4 PV (M)766.35798.07830.77
Year 5 PV (M)878.17923.84971.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)66,303.2269,751.7973,342.38
Equity Value (M)69,386.9572,945.7876,649.99
Shares Outstanding (M)1,879.221,879.221,879.22
Fair Value$36.92$38.82$40.79
Upside / Downside1,005.49%1,062.19%1,121.20%

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