Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Coface S.A. (COFA.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - ReinsuranceSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.49 - $69.39$44.37
Multi-Stage$36.18 - $39.57$37.84
Blended Fair Value$41.10
Current Price$15.87
Upside159.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.23%-1.62%1.301.521.500.550.000.800.350.140.500.51
YoY Growth---14.38%1.31%173.29%0.00%-100.00%125.78%159.31%-72.92%-0.20%-67.03%
Dividend Yield--7.36%10.53%11.50%5.02%0.00%13.67%4.38%1.47%7.15%6.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)229.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)209.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.9328.7117.22
Cash Retained (M)20.5720.5720.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.93-28.71-17.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)-25.36-8.133.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)149.34149.34149.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.17-0.050.02
LTM Dividend per Share1.401.401.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.17-0.050.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.231.351.42
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate2.86%3.86%4.86%
Fair Value$30.49$44.37$69.39
Upside / Downside92.15%179.58%337.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)229.64238.50247.71257.27267.19277.51285.83
Payout Ratio91.04%90.83%90.62%90.42%90.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)209.07216.64224.48232.61241.03249.76264.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate2.86%3.86%4.86%
Year 1 PV (M)200.50202.45204.40
Year 2 PV (M)192.28196.04199.83
Year 3 PV (M)184.40189.83195.37
Year 4 PV (M)176.84183.82191.01
Year 5 PV (M)169.59178.00186.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,478.764,700.754,931.46
Equity Value (M)5,402.395,650.905,908.80
Shares Outstanding (M)149.34149.34149.34
Fair Value$36.18$37.84$39.57
Upside / Downside127.95%138.43%149.32%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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