Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk (CMRY.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,019.38 - $3,008.53$2,490.31
Multi-Stage$3,930.90 - $4,316.61$4,120.01
Blended Fair Value$3,305.16
Current Price$4,600.00
Upside-28.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%90.0070.0063.0250.410.000.006.300.000.000.00
YoY Growth--28.58%11.08%25.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.98%1.41%1.36%1.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,964,558.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,190,307.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)774,251.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)392,911.60245,569.75147,341.85
Cash Retained (M)774,251.00774,251.00774,251.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-392,911.60-245,569.75-147,341.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)381,339.40528,681.25626,909.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,934.687,934.687,934.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share48.0666.6379.01
LTM Dividend per Share150.01150.01150.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share48.0666.6379.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend198.07216.64229.02
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2,019.38$2,490.31$3,008.53
Upside / Downside-56.10%-45.86%-34.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,964,558.001,944,912.421,925,463.301,906,208.661,887,146.581,868,275.111,924,323.36
Payout Ratio60.59%66.47%72.35%78.24%84.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,190,307.001,292,807.381,393,138.721,491,334.151,587,426.371,681,447.601,779,999.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,189,220.281,201,355.191,213,490.09
Year 2 PV (M)1,178,830.421,203,010.931,227,436.92
Year 3 PV (M)1,160,808.081,196,706.851,233,338.23
Year 4 PV (M)1,136,599.691,183,706.431,232,262.49
Year 5 PV (M)1,107,454.181,165,121.891,225,167.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,417,534.9926,741,085.0128,119,205.89
Equity Value (M)31,190,447.6432,690,986.3034,250,900.90
Shares Outstanding (M)7,934.687,934.687,934.68
Fair Value$3,930.90$4,120.01$4,316.61
Upside / Downside-14.55%-10.43%-6.16%

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