Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Centrais Elétricas de Santa Catarina S.A. (CLSC3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,901.56 - $3,511.42$3,290.71
Multi-Stage$552.48 - $604.87$578.20
Blended Fair Value$1,934.45
Current Price$101.73
Upside1,801.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.08%14.69%5.324.523.613.101.690.920.390.030.733.68
YoY Growth--17.77%25.27%16.48%82.91%84.19%138.50%1,149.71%-95.76%-80.23%172.10%
Dividend Yield--6.65%7.39%8.91%6.79%4.15%3.04%1.18%0.19%6.51%50.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)701.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)249.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)451.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)140.2887.6752.60
Cash Retained (M)451.42451.42451.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-140.28-87.67-52.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)311.14363.75398.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)39.7239.7239.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.839.1610.04
LTM Dividend per Share6.296.296.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.839.1610.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.1315.4516.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,901.56$3,290.71$3,511.42
Upside / Downside1,769.22%3,134.75%3,351.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)701.38746.97795.52847.23902.30960.95989.78
Payout Ratio35.64%46.51%57.38%68.26%79.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)249.96347.42456.49578.28713.97864.85915.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)323.81326.88329.95
Year 2 PV (M)396.56404.11411.74
Year 3 PV (M)468.22481.66495.35
Year 4 PV (M)538.79559.52580.83
Year 5 PV (M)608.31637.69668.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,611.0320,558.2521,541.72
Equity Value (M)21,946.7122,968.1024,027.78
Shares Outstanding (M)39.7239.7239.72
Fair Value$552.48$578.20$604.87
Upside / Downside443.09%468.36%494.59%

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