Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.36 - $75.99$58.05
Multi-Stage$81.10 - $89.04$85.00
Blended Fair Value$71.52
Current Price$79.94
Upside-10.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.08%2.15%2.192.142.072.051.841.971.951.871.841.83
YoY Growth--2.29%3.43%0.71%11.78%-6.94%1.45%4.05%1.39%1.00%3.25%
Dividend Yield--2.33%2.40%2.75%2.71%2.33%2.97%2.85%2.61%2.52%2.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,907.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,814.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,093.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)581.40363.38218.03
Cash Retained (M)1,093.001,093.001,093.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-581.40-363.38-218.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)511.60729.63874.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)817.92817.92817.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.891.07
LTM Dividend per Share2.222.222.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.891.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.843.113.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.57%6.57%6.57%
Growth Rate0.15%1.15%2.15%
Fair Value$44.36$58.05$75.99
Upside / Downside-44.51%-27.39%-4.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,907.002,940.472,974.333,008.573,043.213,078.253,170.60
Payout Ratio62.40%67.92%73.44%78.96%84.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,814.001,997.192,184.362,375.582,570.912,770.432,932.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.57%6.57%6.57%
Growth Rate0.15%1.15%2.15%
Year 1 PV (M)1,855.531,874.061,892.58
Year 2 PV (M)1,885.471,923.311,961.53
Year 3 PV (M)1,905.081,962.712,021.50
Year 4 PV (M)1,915.481,993.132,073.13
Year 5 PV (M)1,917.712,015.382,117.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)56,855.0459,750.7462,763.25
Equity Value (M)66,334.3069,519.3472,828.99
Shares Outstanding (M)817.92817.92817.92
Fair Value$81.10$85.00$89.04
Upside / Downside1.45%6.32%11.39%

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