Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - IndustrialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.34 - $56.75$53.18
Multi-Stage$8.32 - $9.09$8.69
Blended Fair Value$30.94
Current Price$3.12
Upside891.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS13.76%16.41%0.160.160.160.150.130.090.070.070.070.07
YoY Growth--1.41%-1.99%12.16%16.24%47.05%20.99%-1.16%1.21%5.43%88.03%
Dividend Yield--5.20%5.30%5.26%5.18%3.37%2.71%2.31%2.80%2.88%2.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)181.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)152.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.2422.6513.59
Cash Retained (M)28.3528.3528.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.24-22.65-13.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)-7.895.7014.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)635.08635.08635.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21.34$53.18$56.75
Upside / Downside583.98%1,604.45%1,718.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)181.21192.99205.53218.89233.12248.27255.72
Payout Ratio84.35%85.48%86.61%87.74%88.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)152.86164.97178.02192.06207.18223.45236.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)153.26154.72156.17
Year 2 PV (M)153.65156.57159.53
Year 3 PV (M)154.00158.42162.93
Year 4 PV (M)154.33160.27166.37
Year 5 PV (M)154.64162.11169.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,511.614,729.524,955.78
Equity Value (M)5,281.505,521.615,770.64
Shares Outstanding (M)635.08635.08635.08
Fair Value$8.32$8.69$9.09
Upside / Downside166.55%178.66%191.23%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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