Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Carlton Investments Limited (CIN.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.73 - $39.08$32.00
Multi-Stage$52.57 - $57.76$55.11
Blended Fair Value$43.56
Current Price$36.20
Upside20.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-4.10%0.17%1.081.011.070.810.821.331.251.191.231.11
YoY Growth--6.79%-5.61%32.10%-1.22%-38.35%6.40%5.04%-3.25%10.81%4.72%
Dividend Yield--2.98%3.41%3.81%2.86%2.73%5.80%3.99%3.60%3.91%3.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)77.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.529.705.82
Cash Retained (M)30.2330.2330.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.52-9.70-5.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.7120.5324.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)26.4526.4526.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.560.780.92
LTM Dividend per Share1.791.791.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.560.780.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.352.572.71
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-1.83%-0.83%0.17%
Fair Value$25.73$32.00$39.08
Upside / Downside-28.93%-11.60%7.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)77.5876.9476.3075.6775.0574.4376.66
Payout Ratio61.04%66.83%72.62%78.41%84.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.3551.4255.4159.3463.1966.9870.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-1.83%-0.83%0.17%
Year 1 PV (M)47.5148.0048.48
Year 2 PV (M)47.3148.2849.26
Year 3 PV (M)46.8248.2649.74
Year 4 PV (M)46.0847.9849.95
Year 5 PV (M)45.1347.4749.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,157.501,217.671,280.31
Equity Value (M)1,390.351,457.671,527.65
Shares Outstanding (M)26.4526.4526.45
Fair Value$52.57$55.11$57.76
Upside / Downside45.21%52.24%59.55%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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