Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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ChampionX Corporation (CHX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.38 - $14.84$12.56
Multi-Stage$16.25 - $17.85$17.03
Blended Fair Value$14.80
Current Price$29.80
Upside-50.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.360.340.240.000.000.003.810.160.440.00
YoY Growth--8.54%42.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%2,261.37%-62.98%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.22%0.95%0.87%0.00%0.00%0.00%9.14%0.42%1.15%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)293.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)72.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)220.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.6336.6421.99
Cash Retained (M)220.75220.75220.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.63-36.64-21.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)162.12184.10198.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)193.49193.49193.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.840.951.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.840.951.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.211.331.40
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.38$12.56$14.84
Upside / Downside-65.18%-57.84%-50.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)293.14290.21287.31284.43281.59278.77287.14
Payout Ratio24.70%37.76%50.82%63.88%76.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)72.39109.57146.00181.69216.65250.90265.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)99.11100.12101.13
Year 2 PV (M)119.44121.89124.36
Year 3 PV (M)134.44138.59142.84
Year 4 PV (M)144.99151.00157.19
Year 5 PV (M)151.87159.77168.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,494.262,624.142,759.38
Equity Value (M)3,144.103,295.523,452.91
Shares Outstanding (M)193.49193.49193.49
Fair Value$16.25$17.03$17.85
Upside / Downside-45.47%-42.85%-40.12%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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