Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

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Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. (CHCI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.17 - $18.67$15.20
Multi-Stage$21.98 - $24.21$23.07
Blended Fair Value$19.13
Current Price$14.01
Upside36.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.15%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.781.741.04
Cash Retained (M)13.8313.8313.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.78-1.74-1.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.0412.0912.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10.4310.4310.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.061.161.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.061.161.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.071.171.23
WACC / Discount Rate7.32%7.32%7.32%
Growth Rate-1.33%-0.33%0.67%
Fair Value$12.17$15.20$18.67
Upside / Downside-13.16%8.48%33.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.9013.8613.8113.7713.7213.6814.09
Payout Ratio0.56%18.45%36.34%54.22%72.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.082.565.027.479.9012.3113.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.32%7.32%7.32%
Growth Rate-1.33%-0.33%0.67%
Year 1 PV (M)2.362.382.41
Year 2 PV (M)4.274.364.45
Year 3 PV (M)5.866.046.22
Year 4 PV (M)7.167.467.76
Year 5 PV (M)8.228.659.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)201.34211.76222.59
Equity Value (M)229.22240.64252.52
Shares Outstanding (M)10.4310.4310.43
Fair Value$21.98$23.07$24.21
Upside / Downside56.86%64.68%72.81%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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