Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Grazziotin S.A. (CGRA3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$612.20 - $981.15$919.48
Multi-Stage$161.17 - $176.38$168.64
Blended Fair Value$544.06
Current Price$29.70
Upside1,731.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.43%15.96%2.221.992.041.071.490.771.291.200.740.84
YoY Growth--11.45%-2.45%90.36%-27.91%92.01%-39.71%7.25%61.05%-11.46%66.41%
Dividend Yield--8.17%7.84%8.67%3.41%6.42%4.20%7.85%6.91%6.26%14.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)101.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.4012.757.65
Cash Retained (M)49.3549.3549.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.40-12.75-7.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.9536.6041.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.6720.6720.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.401.772.02
LTM Dividend per Share2.552.552.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.401.772.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.954.324.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$612.20$919.48$981.15
Upside / Downside1,961.27%2,995.90%3,203.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)101.99108.62115.68123.20131.21139.73143.93
Payout Ratio51.61%59.29%66.97%74.64%82.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.6464.4077.4791.96108.01125.76133.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)60.0860.6561.22
Year 2 PV (M)67.4368.7170.01
Year 3 PV (M)74.6876.8279.00
Year 4 PV (M)81.8384.9888.21
Year 5 PV (M)88.8993.1897.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,958.903,101.813,250.20
Equity Value (M)3,331.803,486.153,646.28
Shares Outstanding (M)20.6720.6720.67
Fair Value$161.17$168.64$176.38
Upside / Downside442.66%467.80%493.88%

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