Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.90 - $41.33$31.39
Multi-Stage$21.74 - $23.63$22.67
Blended Fair Value$27.03
Current Price$62.70
Upside-56.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.56%17.22%1.361.341.200.960.950.420.350.320.380.68
YoY Growth--1.06%12.20%24.68%1.28%126.79%19.34%9.91%-16.18%-43.86%144.40%
Dividend Yield--3.12%2.90%3.86%1.97%2.58%1.93%1.91%1.49%2.39%4.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)661.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)504.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)157.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)132.3082.6949.61
Cash Retained (M)157.10157.10157.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-132.30-82.69-49.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)24.8074.41107.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)370.18370.18370.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.200.29
LTM Dividend per Share1.361.361.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.200.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.431.561.65
WACC / Discount Rate11.27%11.27%11.27%
Growth Rate4.99%5.99%6.99%
Fair Value$23.90$31.39$41.33
Upside / Downside-61.88%-49.93%-34.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)661.50701.12743.11787.61834.78884.78911.32
Payout Ratio76.25%79.00%81.75%84.50%87.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)504.40553.89607.49665.53728.35796.30842.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.27%11.27%11.27%
Growth Rate4.99%5.99%6.99%
Year 1 PV (M)493.10497.80502.49
Year 2 PV (M)481.47490.68499.99
Year 3 PV (M)469.58483.13496.93
Year 4 PV (M)457.50475.18493.37
Year 5 PV (M)445.29466.90489.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,701.465,978.216,265.60
Equity Value (M)8,048.418,391.918,747.74
Shares Outstanding (M)370.18370.18370.18
Fair Value$21.74$22.67$23.63
Upside / Downside-65.32%-63.84%-62.31%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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