Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited (CENTEL-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.30 - $37.04$26.41
Multi-Stage$41.97 - $46.17$44.03
Blended Fair Value$35.22
Current Price$30.00
Upside17.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.36%0.49%0.420.000.000.000.000.650.600.550.500.40
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%8.34%9.09%10.02%24.98%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%4.22%1.32%1.12%1.41%0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,685.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)796.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)889.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)337.12210.70126.42
Cash Retained (M)889.10889.10889.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-337.12-210.70-126.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)551.98678.40762.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,350.001,350.001,350.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.500.56
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.500.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.001.091.15
WACC / Discount Rate5.43%5.43%5.43%
Growth Rate0.24%1.24%2.24%
Fair Value$19.30$26.41$37.04
Upside / Downside-35.66%-11.96%23.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,685.601,706.481,727.621,749.031,770.691,792.631,846.41
Payout Ratio47.25%55.80%64.35%72.90%81.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)796.50952.261,111.761,275.061,442.241,613.361,707.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.43%5.43%5.43%
Growth Rate0.24%1.24%2.24%
Year 1 PV (M)894.32903.25912.17
Year 2 PV (M)980.591,000.261,020.11
Year 3 PV (M)1,056.211,088.131,120.70
Year 4 PV (M)1,122.011,167.451,214.27
Year 5 PV (M)1,178.771,238.751,301.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)51,428.0654,045.0356,767.47
Equity Value (M)56,659.9659,442.8762,335.87
Shares Outstanding (M)1,350.001,350.001,350.00
Fair Value$41.97$44.03$46.17
Upside / Downside39.90%46.77%53.92%

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