Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Wilmar Cahaya Indonesia Tbk. (CEKA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$46,762.39 - $89,220.81$83,612.97
Multi-Stage$13,902.92 - $15,221.98$14,550.31
Blended Fair Value$49,081.64
Current Price$2,650.00
Upside1,752.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%7.19%99.8699.8699.8699.8699.8699.8544.89149.750.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%122.41%-70.02%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--4.76%5.26%4.94%5.37%5.40%8.32%4.34%11.35%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)266,933.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)89,123.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)177,809.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53,386.6833,366.6820,020.01
Cash Retained (M)177,809.99177,809.99177,809.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-53,386.68-33,366.68-20,020.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)124,423.31144,443.31157,789.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)595.00595.00595.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share209.11242.76265.19
LTM Dividend per Share149.79149.79149.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share209.11242.76265.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend358.90392.55414.98
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$46,762.39$83,612.97$89,220.81
Upside / Downside1,664.62%3,055.21%3,266.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)266,933.42284,284.09302,762.56322,442.13343,400.87365,721.92376,693.58
Payout Ratio33.39%44.71%56.03%67.36%78.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)89,123.43127,104.30169,646.14217,181.39270,179.48329,149.73348,441.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)118,437.75119,560.38120,683.01
Year 2 PV (M)147,300.35150,106.01152,938.13
Year 3 PV (M)175,716.41180,760.60185,900.40
Year 4 PV (M)203,691.06211,524.44219,581.62
Year 5 PV (M)231,229.38242,397.84253,993.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,395,864.867,753,087.898,123,982.70
Equity Value (M)8,272,239.808,657,437.169,057,079.62
Shares Outstanding (M)595.00595.00595.00
Fair Value$13,902.92$14,550.31$15,221.98
Upside / Downside424.64%449.07%474.41%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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