Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Caisse Regionale de Credit Agricole Mutuel Toulouse 31 (CAT31.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$247.16 - $374.47$307.06
Multi-Stage$498.00 - $548.55$522.78
Blended Fair Value$414.92
Current Price$87.70
Upside373.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.20%-0.11%2.812.522.680.452.171.812.093.032.912.85
YoY Growth--11.51%-5.90%490.75%-79.08%19.75%-13.42%-31.10%4.11%2.25%0.31%
Dividend Yield--3.74%3.85%3.80%0.56%2.19%1.35%1.85%2.93%3.20%3.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)129.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)106.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.9616.239.74
Cash Retained (M)106.10106.10106.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.96-16.23-9.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)80.1489.8796.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.564.564.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share17.5919.7321.15
LTM Dividend per Share5.215.215.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share17.5919.7321.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend22.8024.9326.36
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.01%-1.01%-0.01%
Fair Value$247.16$307.06$374.47
Upside / Downside181.82%250.13%326.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)129.81128.51127.21125.93124.67123.41127.11
Payout Ratio18.27%32.61%46.96%61.31%75.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.7241.9159.7477.2194.31111.07117.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.01%-1.01%-0.01%
Year 1 PV (M)38.7639.1639.55
Year 2 PV (M)51.1052.1553.21
Year 3 PV (M)61.0862.9764.90
Year 4 PV (M)69.0171.8774.82
Year 5 PV (M)75.1679.0783.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,973.632,076.412,183.43
Equity Value (M)2,268.742,381.632,499.05
Shares Outstanding (M)4.564.564.56
Fair Value$498.00$522.78$548.55
Upside / Downside467.84%496.10%525.49%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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