Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.63 - $88.88$65.30
Multi-Stage$47.13 - $51.52$49.29
Blended Fair Value$57.29
Current Price$54.64
Upside4.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.67%5.75%1.091.090.870.010.321.251.151.020.870.74
YoY Growth---0.31%25.87%12,443.62%-97.87%-73.99%7.95%12.75%17.74%17.80%18.58%
Dividend Yield--2.14%2.96%2.51%0.02%0.54%7.29%2.39%2.11%1.37%1.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)160.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)108.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.1620.1012.06
Cash Retained (M)108.16108.16108.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.16-20.10-12.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)76.0088.0696.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)48.7448.7448.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.561.811.97
LTM Dividend per Share1.081.081.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.561.811.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.642.893.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.38%9.38%9.38%
Growth Rate3.75%4.75%5.75%
Fair Value$48.63$65.30$88.88
Upside / Downside-11.00%19.50%62.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)160.81168.44176.44184.81193.59202.78208.86
Payout Ratio32.74%44.19%55.64%67.10%78.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.6574.4498.18124.00152.06182.50193.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.38%9.38%9.38%
Growth Rate3.75%4.75%5.75%
Year 1 PV (M)67.4068.0568.70
Year 2 PV (M)80.5082.0683.64
Year 3 PV (M)92.0794.7697.50
Year 4 PV (M)102.24106.24110.36
Year 5 PV (M)111.12116.58122.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,844.161,934.772,028.90
Equity Value (M)2,297.502,402.462,511.35
Shares Outstanding (M)48.7448.7448.74
Fair Value$47.13$49.29$51.52
Upside / Downside-13.74%-9.80%-5.71%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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