Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Burford Capital Limited (BUR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.11 - $76.34$58.58
Multi-Stage$11.58 - $12.68$12.12
Blended Fair Value$35.35
Current Price$14.26
Upside147.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.78%6.72%0.120.120.120.180.000.130.110.090.080.07
YoY Growth---0.63%-0.60%-32.61%0.00%-100.00%15.64%23.85%16.33%9.88%8.89%
Dividend Yield--0.96%0.79%1.53%1.75%0.00%1.36%0.54%0.57%1.19%2.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)85.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)45.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.2010.756.45
Cash Retained (M)45.0545.0545.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.20-10.75-6.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.8634.3138.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)222.40222.40222.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate4.72%5.72%6.72%
Fair Value$20.11$58.58$76.34
Upside / Downside41.04%310.82%435.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)85.9990.9196.11101.61107.42113.57116.98
Payout Ratio47.60%56.08%64.56%73.04%81.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.9350.9862.0574.2287.57102.21108.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate4.72%5.72%6.72%
Year 1 PV (M)47.4947.9548.40
Year 2 PV (M)53.8554.8855.92
Year 3 PV (M)60.0061.7363.50
Year 4 PV (M)65.9568.5071.13
Year 5 PV (M)71.7075.1978.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,277.292,388.122,503.22
Equity Value (M)2,576.282,696.372,820.99
Shares Outstanding (M)222.40222.40222.40
Fair Value$11.58$12.12$12.68
Upside / Downside-18.76%-14.98%-11.05%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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