Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Popular, Inc. (BPOP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$270.62 - $717.35$413.71
Multi-Stage$185.22 - $202.37$193.64
Blended Fair Value$303.67
Current Price$127.01
Upside139.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.28%47.42%2.612.322.342.051.941.681.531.390.950.28
YoY Growth--12.89%-1.03%14.17%5.85%15.40%9.83%9.94%45.47%242.38%417.24%
Dividend Yield--2.83%2.65%4.07%2.51%2.75%4.79%2.86%3.34%2.34%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)797.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)191.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)605.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)159.4299.6359.78
Cash Retained (M)605.27605.27605.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-159.42-99.63-59.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)445.85505.64545.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)69.0569.0569.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.467.327.90
LTM Dividend per Share2.782.782.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.467.327.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.2310.1010.68
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$270.62$413.71$717.35
Upside / Downside113.07%225.73%464.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)797.08848.89904.06962.831,025.411,092.061,124.83
Payout Ratio24.06%37.25%50.44%63.63%76.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)191.81316.22455.99612.60787.65982.861,040.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)287.12289.84292.56
Year 2 PV (M)375.94383.10390.32
Year 3 PV (M)458.58471.74485.16
Year 4 PV (M)535.36555.94577.12
Year 5 PV (M)606.57635.86666.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,526.3911,034.8211,562.71
Equity Value (M)12,789.9513,371.3113,974.16
Shares Outstanding (M)69.0569.0569.05
Fair Value$185.22$193.64$202.37
Upside / Downside45.83%52.46%59.33%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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