Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Banco BMG S.A. (BMGB4.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.23 - $109.30$95.82
Multi-Stage$14.20 - $15.52$14.85
Blended Fair Value$55.33
Current Price$4.04
Upside1,269.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%7.44%0.600.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.200.24
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-17.37%-16.24%
Dividend Yield--15.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.42%2.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)320.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)216.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)104.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64.1440.0924.05
Cash Retained (M)104.30104.30104.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-64.14-40.09-24.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.1664.2180.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)583.56583.56583.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.110.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.110.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.51
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30.23$95.82$109.30
Upside / Downside648.22%2,271.69%2,605.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)320.72341.57363.77387.41412.59439.41452.60
Payout Ratio67.48%71.98%76.49%80.99%85.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)216.42245.87278.24313.77352.75395.47418.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)227.55229.71231.87
Year 2 PV (M)238.33242.87247.45
Year 3 PV (M)248.74255.88263.16
Year 4 PV (M)258.81268.76279.00
Year 5 PV (M)268.54281.51294.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,046.227,386.557,739.91
Equity Value (M)8,288.198,665.299,056.37
Shares Outstanding (M)583.56583.56583.56
Fair Value$14.20$14.85$15.52
Upside / Downside251.55%267.55%284.14%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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