Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Industry

Sector

BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.53 - $15.45$12.90
Multi-Stage$14.19 - $15.60$14.88
Blended Fair Value$13.89
Current Price$30.53
Upside-54.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-73.53%0.00%0.000.000.000.010.010.440.410.100.000.00
YoY Growth---59.38%-68.00%-15.25%-21.33%-98.50%5.39%318.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.02%0.02%0.01%3.14%0.89%0.22%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.183.862.32
Cash Retained (M)30.9030.9030.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.18-3.86-2.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)24.7227.0328.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.9222.9222.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.081.181.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.081.181.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.25
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate-0.42%0.58%1.58%
Fair Value$10.53$12.90$15.45
Upside / Downside-65.51%-57.76%-49.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30.9031.0831.2631.4431.6331.8132.76
Payout Ratio0.01%18.01%36.01%54.01%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.005.6011.2616.9822.7728.6330.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate-0.42%0.58%1.58%
Year 1 PV (M)5.055.105.15
Year 2 PV (M)9.159.349.53
Year 3 PV (M)12.4512.8313.22
Year 4 PV (M)15.0615.6816.31
Year 5 PV (M)17.0817.9518.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)266.54280.20294.40
Equity Value (M)325.34341.10357.47
Shares Outstanding (M)22.9222.9222.92
Fair Value$14.19$14.88$15.60
Upside / Downside-53.51%-51.26%-48.92%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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