Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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BGC Group, Inc (BGC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.61 - $3.81$3.19
Multi-Stage$3.80 - $4.17$3.98
Blended Fair Value$3.59
Current Price$9.46
Upside-62.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-29.23%-10.63%0.070.040.030.030.130.400.480.410.500.27
YoY Growth--96.57%16.97%-1.58%-75.02%-68.59%-16.85%15.66%-16.70%82.88%24.95%
Dividend Yield--0.77%0.47%0.59%0.71%2.59%15.80%8.67%4.79%6.80%4.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)165.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)126.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.1620.7212.43
Cash Retained (M)126.73126.73126.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.16-20.72-12.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)93.57106.01114.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)483.48483.48483.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate-0.87%0.13%1.13%
Fair Value$2.61$3.19$3.81
Upside / Downside-72.43%-66.31%-59.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)165.79166.01166.22166.43166.64166.85171.86
Payout Ratio23.56%36.85%50.14%63.42%76.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.0661.1783.34105.56127.83150.17158.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate-0.87%0.13%1.13%
Year 1 PV (M)55.2855.8456.39
Year 2 PV (M)68.0569.4370.83
Year 3 PV (M)77.9080.2882.71
Year 4 PV (M)85.2588.7492.34
Year 5 PV (M)90.5095.15100.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,461.491,536.711,615.00
Equity Value (M)1,838.461,926.152,017.26
Shares Outstanding (M)483.48483.48483.48
Fair Value$3.80$3.98$4.17
Upside / Downside-59.80%-57.89%-55.89%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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