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Definitive Analysis

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Business First Bancshares, Inc. (BFST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$74.99 - $245.99$121.84
Multi-Stage$48.42 - $52.93$50.63
Blended Fair Value$86.24
Current Price$23.61
Upside265.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.08%0.00%0.500.430.370.320.250.170.110.060.040.00
YoY Growth--17.45%16.92%14.71%25.48%48.79%54.04%83.09%69.70%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.06%1.97%2.14%1.31%1.06%1.27%0.45%0.24%0.14%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)81.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)65.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.4010.256.15
Cash Retained (M)65.4265.4265.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.40-10.25-6.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.0255.1759.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)29.5729.5729.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.661.872.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.661.872.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.222.432.57
WACC / Discount Rate8.62%8.62%8.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$74.99$121.84$245.99
Upside / Downside217.62%416.04%941.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)81.9987.3293.0099.04105.48112.33115.70
Payout Ratio20.21%34.17%48.13%62.08%76.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.5729.8444.7661.4980.21101.10107.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.62%8.62%8.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)27.2127.4727.73
Year 2 PV (M)37.2237.9338.65
Year 3 PV (M)46.6447.9849.34
Year 4 PV (M)55.4857.6259.81
Year 5 PV (M)63.7866.8670.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,201.231,259.251,319.49
Equity Value (M)1,431.571,497.111,565.08
Shares Outstanding (M)29.5729.5729.57
Fair Value$48.42$50.63$52.93
Upside / Downside105.07%114.46%124.20%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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