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Definitive Analysis

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Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$265.29 - $1,155.32$638.28
Multi-Stage$139.42 - $152.26$145.73
Blended Fair Value$392.00
Current Price$187.17
Upside109.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS3.11%9.45%4.143.813.863.753.633.553.413.212.341.95
YoY Growth--8.73%-1.26%2.96%3.24%2.14%4.27%6.15%36.93%20.46%15.88%
Dividend Yield--2.21%1.68%1.58%1.47%1.48%1.46%1.28%1.46%1.12%1.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,678.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,196.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)482.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)335.60209.75125.85
Cash Retained (M)482.00482.00482.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-335.60-209.75-125.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)146.40272.25356.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)288.85288.85288.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.941.23
LTM Dividend per Share4.144.144.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.941.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.655.085.37
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$265.29$638.28$1,155.32
Upside / Downside41.74%241.01%517.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,678.001,787.071,903.232,026.942,158.692,299.012,367.98
Payout Ratio71.28%75.02%78.77%82.51%86.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,196.001,340.661,499.081,672.431,861.982,069.102,190.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,237.171,248.891,260.62
Year 2 PV (M)1,276.561,300.881,325.42
Year 3 PV (M)1,314.231,351.961,390.40
Year 4 PV (M)1,350.231,402.161,455.57
Year 5 PV (M)1,384.601,451.481,520.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,709.8235,338.0237,028.53
Equity Value (M)40,272.6242,093.3943,981.46
Shares Outstanding (M)288.85288.85288.85
Fair Value$139.42$145.73$152.26
Upside / Downside-25.51%-22.14%-18.65%

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