Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Civitas Resources, Inc. (BCEI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$177.56 - $546.50$283.55
Multi-Stage$126.38 - $137.60$131.89
Blended Fair Value$207.72
Current Price$56.10
Upside270.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%5.287.055.740.650.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---25.21%22.98%783.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.40%12.57%10.22%1.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)638.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)627.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)127.6279.7647.86
Cash Retained (M)10.1710.1710.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-127.62-79.76-47.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)-117.46-69.60-37.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)93.6193.6193.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1.25-0.74-0.40
LTM Dividend per Share6.716.716.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1.25-0.74-0.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.455.966.31
WACC / Discount Rate8.74%8.74%8.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$177.56$283.55$546.50
Upside / Downside216.50%405.43%874.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)638.11679.59723.76770.80820.91874.27900.49
Payout Ratio98.41%96.73%95.04%93.36%91.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)627.94657.33687.89719.64752.62786.84832.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.74%8.74%8.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)598.82604.50610.17
Year 2 PV (M)570.88581.75592.73
Year 3 PV (M)544.07559.69575.60
Year 4 PV (M)518.35538.28558.79
Year 5 PV (M)493.68517.53542.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,104.279,544.0110,000.58
Equity Value (M)11,830.0712,345.7612,880.16
Shares Outstanding (M)93.6193.6193.61
Fair Value$126.38$131.89$137.60
Upside / Downside125.28%135.10%145.27%

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