Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13,568.43 - $52,521.63$22,970.72
Multi-Stage$8,862.45 - $9,669.18$9,258.54
Blended Fair Value$16,114.63
Current Price$8,675.00
Upside85.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.34%27.21%277.51212.51155.01111.40110.6071.0052.0042.0035.0030.60
YoY Growth--30.59%37.10%39.14%0.72%55.77%36.54%23.81%20.00%14.38%22.40%
Dividend Yield--3.26%2.16%1.77%1.40%1.78%1.29%0.95%0.90%1.06%1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56,976,535.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36,982,515.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)19,994,020.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11,395,307.007,122,066.884,273,240.13
Cash Retained (M)19,994,020.0019,994,020.0019,994,020.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-11,395,307.00-7,122,066.88-4,273,240.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,598,713.0012,871,953.1315,720,779.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)123,270.28123,270.28123,270.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share69.75104.42127.53
LTM Dividend per Share300.01300.01300.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share69.75104.42127.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend369.77404.43427.54
WACC / Discount Rate8.38%8.38%8.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13,568.43$22,970.72$52,521.63
Upside / Downside56.41%164.79%505.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56,976,535.0060,680,009.7864,624,210.4168,824,784.0973,298,395.0578,062,790.7380,404,674.45
Payout Ratio64.91%69.93%74.94%79.96%84.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36,982,515.0042,431,504.5448,432,611.5955,034,589.4662,290,196.6670,256,511.6674,374,323.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.38%8.38%8.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)38,784,825.0439,152,453.7239,520,082.39
Year 2 PV (M)40,465,480.2141,236,233.9542,014,258.95
Year 3 PV (M)42,029,666.8343,236,187.5244,465,579.97
Year 4 PV (M)43,482,381.6645,154,591.3546,874,574.90
Year 5 PV (M)44,828,438.3246,993,668.6549,241,767.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)882,886,376.40925,530,118.50969,805,937.00
Equity Value (M)1,092,477,168.471,141,303,253.701,191,922,200.65
Shares Outstanding (M)123,270.28123,270.28123,270.28
Fair Value$8,862.45$9,258.54$9,669.18
Upside / Downside2.16%6.73%11.46%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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