Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Azzas 2154 S.A. (AZZA3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$682.93 - $804.61$754.04
Multi-Stage$444.54 - $487.91$465.82
Blended Fair Value$609.93
Current Price$30.15
Upside1,922.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.71%6.50%0.320.180.410.000.150.540.400.760.160.24
YoY Growth--82.04%-56.75%0.00%-100.00%-71.42%35.51%-47.96%373.31%-33.18%40.26%
Dividend Yield--1.32%0.28%0.64%0.00%0.22%1.46%0.78%1.52%0.51%1.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)753.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)118.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)634.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)150.6494.1556.49
Cash Retained (M)634.43634.43634.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-150.64-94.15-56.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)483.79540.28577.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)186.16186.16186.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.602.903.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.640.640.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.602.903.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.243.543.74
WACC / Discount Rate3.15%3.15%3.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$682.93$754.04$804.61
Upside / Downside2,165.12%2,400.96%2,568.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)753.18802.13854.27909.80968.941,031.921,062.88
Payout Ratio15.77%30.61%45.46%60.31%75.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)118.75245.56388.35548.67728.19928.73983.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate3.15%3.15%3.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)235.81238.05240.29
Year 2 PV (M)358.14364.96371.85
Year 3 PV (M)485.91499.86514.08
Year 4 PV (M)619.31643.13667.62
Year 5 PV (M)758.52795.16833.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)80,297.9584,176.3788,203.23
Equity Value (M)82,755.6586,717.5390,830.26
Shares Outstanding (M)186.16186.16186.16
Fair Value$444.54$465.82$487.91
Upside / Downside1,374.41%1,445.00%1,518.27%

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