Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Ayvens (AYV.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.85 - $16.40$13.46
Multi-Stage$22.73 - $24.97$23.83
Blended Fair Value$18.65
Current Price$9.45
Upside97.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.38%0.00%0.460.710.520.300.300.280.270.190.180.00
YoY Growth---35.96%37.59%71.41%0.00%8.50%5.26%42.87%4.08%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.98%10.77%4.82%2.56%2.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,056.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)759.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)297.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)211.28132.0579.23
Cash Retained (M)297.20297.20297.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-211.28-132.05-79.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)85.92165.15217.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)838.34838.34838.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.200.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.910.910.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.200.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.011.101.17
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.85$13.46$16.40
Upside / Downside14.78%42.46%73.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,056.401,045.841,035.381,025.021,014.771,004.631,034.76
Payout Ratio71.87%75.49%79.12%82.75%86.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)759.20789.54819.19848.17876.49904.16957.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)729.69737.14744.58
Year 2 PV (M)699.71714.07728.56
Year 3 PV (M)669.56690.26711.39
Year 4 PV (M)639.47665.97693.29
Year 5 PV (M)609.66641.40674.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,709.1016,527.1117,378.85
Equity Value (M)19,057.1919,975.9520,931.13
Shares Outstanding (M)838.34838.34838.34
Fair Value$22.73$23.83$24.97
Upside / Downside140.55%152.15%164.20%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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