Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Aygaz A.S. (AYGAZ.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,617.86 - $3,145.32$2,947.63
Multi-Stage$506.48 - $553.47$529.55
Blended Fair Value$1,738.59
Current Price$182.40
Upside853.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.60%26.46%8.331.430.680.680.681.752.092.051.430.46
YoY Growth--482.00%109.75%0.00%0.00%-61.03%-16.35%2.22%42.86%214.73%-42.81%
Dividend Yield--5.41%0.92%1.02%2.56%4.61%20.84%21.49%14.15%9.75%3.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,476.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,250.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)225.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)695.26434.53260.72
Cash Retained (M)225.74225.74225.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-695.26-434.53-260.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)-469.52-208.80-34.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)219.80219.80219.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share-2.14-0.95-0.16
LTM Dividend per Share14.7914.7914.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share-2.14-0.95-0.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.6513.8414.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,617.86$2,947.63$3,145.32
Upside / Downside786.99%1,516.02%1,624.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,476.283,702.243,942.884,199.174,472.114,762.804,905.68
Payout Ratio93.51%92.81%92.10%91.40%90.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,250.543,435.863,631.543,838.154,056.264,286.524,537.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,201.133,231.473,261.81
Year 2 PV (M)3,152.293,212.333,272.94
Year 3 PV (M)3,104.013,193.123,283.91
Year 4 PV (M)3,056.293,173.833,294.72
Year 5 PV (M)3,009.133,154.473,305.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)95,802.77100,430.08105,234.49
Equity Value (M)111,325.62116,395.30121,653.26
Shares Outstanding (M)219.80219.80219.80
Fair Value$506.48$529.55$553.47
Upside / Downside177.68%190.32%203.44%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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