Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Business Equipment & SuppliesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$234.90 - $754.04$379.45
Multi-Stage$155.88 - $170.22$162.92
Blended Fair Value$271.18
Current Price$160.75
Upside68.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222022202120192018201720162016
DPS7.90%8.29%3.513.253.022.792.492.402.211.971.801.68
YoY Growth--8.10%7.45%8.30%12.09%3.74%8.40%12.54%9.12%7.06%6.39%
Dividend Yield--2.00%1.45%1.69%1.59%1.32%2.39%1.96%1.85%2.24%2.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)695.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)286.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)409.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)139.1286.9552.17
Cash Retained (M)409.20409.20409.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-139.12-86.95-52.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)270.08322.25357.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)79.1079.1079.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.414.074.51
LTM Dividend per Share3.623.623.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.414.074.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.047.698.13
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$234.90$379.45$754.04
Upside / Downside46.13%136.05%369.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)695.60740.81788.97840.25894.87953.03981.62
Payout Ratio41.17%50.94%60.70%70.47%80.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)286.40377.36478.93592.12717.99857.73908.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)344.02347.29350.55
Year 2 PV (M)398.06405.64413.29
Year 3 PV (M)448.65461.53474.66
Year 4 PV (M)495.97515.05534.66
Year 5 PV (M)540.16566.25593.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,103.3710,591.3711,098.04
Equity Value (M)12,330.2412,887.1213,464.54
Shares Outstanding (M)79.1079.1079.10
Fair Value$155.88$162.92$170.22
Upside / Downside-3.03%1.35%5.89%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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