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Definitive Analysis

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Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.74 - $48.89$41.76
Multi-Stage$49.31 - $54.19$51.71
Blended Fair Value$46.73
Current Price$47.89
Upside-2.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.460.400.360.003.740.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--15.60%10.49%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.17%0.69%0.57%0.00%12.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)376.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)351.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.3447.0928.25
Cash Retained (M)351.73351.73351.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.34-47.09-28.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)276.38304.64323.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)68.6368.6368.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.034.444.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.034.444.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.394.805.08
WACC / Discount Rate10.39%10.39%10.39%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$34.74$41.76$48.89
Upside / Downside-27.45%-12.80%2.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)376.71372.94369.21365.52361.87358.25369.00
Payout Ratio6.63%23.31%39.98%56.65%73.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.9986.92147.61207.08265.34322.42341.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.39%10.39%10.39%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)77.9578.7479.54
Year 2 PV (M)118.70121.14123.60
Year 3 PV (M)149.33153.95158.67
Year 4 PV (M)171.60178.71186.04
Year 5 PV (M)186.98196.72206.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,679.742,819.282,964.57
Equity Value (M)3,384.303,548.543,719.27
Shares Outstanding (M)68.6368.6368.63
Fair Value$49.31$51.71$54.19
Upside / Downside2.97%7.97%13.17%

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