Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.07 - $98.83$72.61
Multi-Stage$58.60 - $64.12$61.31
Blended Fair Value$66.96
Current Price$73.41
Upside-8.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.00%13.35%1.331.281.231.191.111.040.910.680.590.47
YoY Growth--3.76%3.56%4.17%7.18%6.37%14.68%34.26%15.08%24.19%24.63%
Dividend Yield--2.03%1.44%1.79%1.86%1.64%2.75%1.68%1.06%1.15%1.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)530.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)194.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)335.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106.1066.3139.79
Cash Retained (M)335.90335.90335.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-106.10-66.31-39.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)229.80269.59296.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)143.51143.51143.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.601.882.06
LTM Dividend per Share1.361.361.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.601.882.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.963.233.42
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate3.00%4.00%5.00%
Fair Value$54.07$72.61$98.83
Upside / Downside-26.34%-1.09%34.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)530.50551.71573.76596.70620.55645.36664.72
Payout Ratio36.68%47.35%58.01%68.67%79.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)194.60261.21332.84409.77492.33580.83614.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate3.00%4.00%5.00%
Year 1 PV (M)238.15240.46242.77
Year 2 PV (M)276.65282.05287.50
Year 3 PV (M)310.53319.66328.97
Year 4 PV (M)340.14353.54367.34
Year 5 PV (M)365.85383.96402.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,878.387,218.847,572.64
Equity Value (M)8,409.698,798.519,202.00
Shares Outstanding (M)143.51143.51143.51
Fair Value$58.60$61.31$64.12
Upside / Downside-20.17%-16.48%-12.65%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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